Writing
Writing
Occasional pieces on the distance between what technology can do and what a business is worth. Written by me, from work I've done, and revised when I change my mind.
Sept 2026
6 min readTwenty years of being early
Predicting the technology is the easy part. Predicting the lag is where I have spent most of my career. For the first time in twenty years, I am not confident I know how long that lag is any more.
Jul 2026
5 min readTechnology was never the constraint. Now it really isn't.
Most ideas never fail; they just cost too much to try. AI has collapsed the cost of finding out whether an idea works, and the constraint has moved to imagination, judgement and execution.